Saturday, March 2, 2013

Patience. Or: the Importance of the Entry Draft in Today's NHL.



When the Calgary Flames filed an offer sheet for Colorado's restricted free agent Ryan O'Reilly, the reactions seemed to vary among the fanbase. Skimming various forums and message boards on the internet was interesting because it was a move that garnered a lot of different opinions. I have read posts by fans who applauded our GM Jay Feaster for making such a bold move to address an area where the Flames have had a glaring need for many years. I have read posts by fans who liked the move, but were concerned because of the high cap hit and the high salary in the second year of the contract. And I have read posts by fans who debated whether a somewhat proven NHL forward like O'Reilly would be worth giving up a first and a third round pick.

In the end, it does not really matter, since the Avalanche matched the offer sheet within a few hours, and the disappointment of the fans turned into a feeling of gratitude towards the Avalanche very quickly when we learned that O'Reilly would have required waivers to be eligible to wear the Flaming C this year. Giving up a first and a third round selection for O'Reilly, only to lose him on waivers, is a scary notion that should have consequences behind the curtains. But let's ignore the troubling image for such a franchise-crippling scenario and look at the facts: the Flames, desperate as always to acquire a true top center, were willing to give up a first and a third round pick to acquire O'Reilly. Already missing their second and their fifth round selection, the Flames were willing to limp into the draft with a fourth round selection as their highest pick - something that not even Darryl Sutter, the master of pick-trading, dared to do.

Ah yes, the Flames and draft picks. Ever since I started following the Flames, I have never had the impression that the Flames saw more in their draft picks than tradeable assets. Darryl Sutter, Jay Feaster's predecessor as GM in Calgary, always seemed eager to trade his picks, either for immediate help or in order to trade down. It is no surprise that the Flames have not attended an NHL Entry Draft in the last 14 years without making a trade - at some point, it seemed like the question was not IF the Flames would trade down, but HOW FAR. Quantity over quality seemed to be a prominent notion.

It seems like it took the Flames some time to understand that trading away draft pick after draft pick was a bad idea. It finally dawned on Darryl Sutter that the organization had mortgaged their future when it was already too late: the cupboards were bare. It was only then when Sutter made substantial changes behind the curtains, installing a better scouting department and adding more scouts. It was a needed adjustment, but still, the mentality did not seem to change drastically when Jay Feaster took over. Since the "acting GM" tag was lifted, Feaster has traded away two second round selections. He and John Weisbrod were willing to part with their 2012 first round pick until Weisbrod saw Mark Jankowski play. They were willing to give up on nearly the whole 2013 draft class. Yes, Feaster has also acquired some picks, but in my honest opinion, he should add to the picks the Flames have, not recoup them because he traded them before.

The Flames are always desperate to make the playoffs - it seems that matters most to the organization, even if they only manage to crawl in on the final day of the regular season. They tend to think that shuffling the cards will do the trick and often look at trades and free agents to make it happen. The draft has obviously never looked that important to the Flames when it comes to building their hockey club. One look at the sixteen organizations that made the playoffs last year shows that this is a huge mistake: most of those teams have been built through the draft.

When it comes to the sixteen playoff teams in 2011-12, the average number of players who were drafted by their respective team and played at least 30 games in the 2011-12 regular season for them is nine. When the Los Angeles Kings hoisted the Stanley Cup in June 2012, ten of their draft picks were dressed for game six, with two more scratched after playing more than 30 regular season games for the Kings. On the other side of the ice, the Devils had seven of their draft picks in the lineup, with four more scratched after playing more than 30 regular season games for the Devils. Some other playoff teams were almost completely built through their draft: the Nashville Predators got 30 or more regular season games from 15 of their draft picks, the Detroit Red Wings had 14, the Washington Capitals and the Ottawa Senators had 12 each.

You do not have to be Einstein to understand the point I want to make. The number of players that were drafted by the Calgary Flames and donned the Flaming C in more than 30 regular season games last year is a sad and underwhelming three. Blueliner T.J. Brodie leads this "pack" with 54 games after being recalled from the AHL early in the season and deservedly sticking with the team for the remainder of the season. Due to injuries, Mikael Backlund only had 41 games to his name, and the third player in this group is forward David Moss - a seventh round pick from 2001 who left the club through free agency in July. In the lockout-shortened 2013 season, this number could be slightly higher for the Flames, thanks to the addition of Steve Begin, a Flames draft pick from 1996. Brodie, Backlund and Sven Baertschi are also on pace for more than 30 games on a 82 game basis.

I do not know all the reasons for the Flames' obvious neglect of the Entry Draft as an opportunity to build your hockey club. Maybe they have not underestimated the value of the yearly event and simply have been bad at drafting, but there is one quality that is needed when it comes to drafting: patience. The willingness to accept that those are 18-year-old players that still have to learn certain aspects of the game and/or develop an NHL ready body. The willingness to accept that it takes time to properly develop a prospect and it may take three or four years before a player can step in your lineup and contribute. The willingness to accept that a draft selection in most cases is not for today, but for tomorrow. Teams like the Detroit Red Wings have understood that notion and have experienced a steady influx of new talent in addition to their veteran core. The New York Rangers have a similar payroll like the Flames and have a similar "win now"-mentality, yet still they have not put all their hopes in trades and free agents, but have managed to add to their group with "homegrown" talent.

The Flames have to develop a similar understanding of the Entry Draft's value if they want to build a successful hockey club. Trading your draft picks for immediate help or trading down for quantity over quality have not done the trick for this organization and it is time to change the overall mentality. The Flames have to have patience with their prospects - and the selection of a long-term project like Mark Jankowski in the 2012 draft gives me hope that the Flames have started to understand. However, the Flames have to stop giving out draft picks like candy, and while a player like Ryan O'Reilly might be worth a first and a third round pick, drafting your first player at around pick number 100 in a deep draft class like the upcoming one is simply nothing but a bad idea. Especially when you are a team in need of fresh blood and long-term help like the Calgary Flames.

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